ESEA Advanced Season 57 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Brahmas ban
57%50%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Brahmas · 0 maps
NukeBrahmas ban
43%50%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Brahmas +7%Brahmas · 0 maps
AncientWanted Goons pick
50%50%
Wanted Goons · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Brahmas · 0 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
33%50%
Wanted Goons · 2 mapsedge Brahmas +17%Brahmas · 0 maps
DefaultBrahmas pick
40%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge Brahmas +10%Brahmas · 0 maps
MirageWanted Goons ban
40%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge Brahmas +10%Brahmas · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
2. BanBrahmas remove Dust2
3. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
4. PickBrahmas take Default
5. BanBrahmas remove Nuke
6. BanWanted Goons remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
Wanted Goons 37%Brahmas 63%
The model gave 63% on Brahmas — the map was taken by Brahmas.
Overpassprediction correct16:13
Wanted Goons 53%Brahmas 47%
The model gave 53% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Nukeprediction correct13:16
Wanted Goons 43%Brahmas 57%
The model gave 57% on Brahmas — the map was taken by Brahmas.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 56%
Series resultBrahmas 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3