NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AM#57 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
55%53%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsnearly even +2%AM · 11 maps
Dust2AM ban
46%25%
Nuclear TigeRES · 9 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +21%AM · 8 maps
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
55%36%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +19%AM · 7 maps
MirageAM pick
71%62%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +9%AM · 9 maps
AnubisAM ban
69%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 9 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +19%AM · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%AM · 6 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
50%70%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge AM +20%AM · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
2. BanAM remove Anubis
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickAM take Mirage
5. BanAM remove Dust2
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
Nuclear TigeRES 58%AM 42%
The model gave 58% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Nuclear TigeRES 70%AM 30%
The model gave 70% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 67%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2