Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · loss 7:13series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 7:13
ENCE#112 in the world · win 13:7The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageENCE ban
57%52%
HYPERSPIRIT · 3 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +5%ENCE · 19 maps
InfernoHYPERSPIRIT ban
55%60%
HYPERSPIRIT · 7 mapsedge ENCE +5%ENCE · 11 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%54%
HYPERSPIRIT · 6 mapsnearly even -4%ENCE · 9 maps
CacheENCE ban
60%50%
HYPERSPIRIT · 6 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%ENCE · 8 maps
Dust2HYPERSPIRIT ban
44%46%
HYPERSPIRIT · 5 mapsnearly even -2%ENCE · 9 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
50%50%
HYPERSPIRIT · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ENCE · 12 maps
AncientENCE ban
38%22%
HYPERSPIRIT · 4 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +16%ENCE · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
2. BanENCE remove Ancient
3. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Dust2
4. BanENCE remove Cache
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Inferno
6. BanENCE remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
HYPERSPIRIT 44%ENCE 56%
The model gave 56% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 52%
Series resultENCE 7:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1