Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFURITY#115 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoINFURITY pick
63%50%
INFURITY · 4 mapsedge INFURITY +13%HYPERSPIRIT · 8 maps
Anubispossible decider
43%50%
INFURITY · 3 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +7%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
AncientHYPERSPIRIT ban
71%33%
INFURITY · 3 mapsedge INFURITY +38%HYPERSPIRIT · 5 maps
CacheHYPERSPIRIT pick
40%60%
INFURITY · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +20%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
Dust2INFURITY ban
40%44%
INFURITY · 1 mapnearly even -4%HYPERSPIRIT · 5 maps
MirageINFURITY ban
50%57%
INFURITY · 0 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +7%HYPERSPIRIT · 3 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
43%50%
INFURITY · 3 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +7%HYPERSPIRIT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFURITY remove Mirage
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
3. PickINFURITY take Inferno
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Cache
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Ancient
6. BanINFURITY remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
INFURITY 28%HYPERSPIRIT 72%
The model gave 72% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by INFURITY.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
INFURITY 65%HYPERSPIRIT 35%
The model gave 65% on INFURITY — the map was taken by INFURITY.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFURITY · 55%
Series resultINFURITY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2