Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KUUSAMO#177 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSangal pick
67%64%
Sangal · 5 mapsnearly even +3%KUUSAMO · 10 maps
MirageKUUSAMO pick
44%50%
Sangal · 5 mapsedge KUUSAMO +6%KUUSAMO · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%50%
Sangal · 6 mapsedge Sangal +10%KUUSAMO · 4 maps
Dust2Sangal ban
33%38%
Sangal · 5 mapsedge KUUSAMO +5%KUUSAMO · 4 maps
AncientKUUSAMO ban
50%29%
Sangal · 4 mapsedge Sangal +21%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
AnubisKUUSAMO ban
63%50%
Sangal · 4 mapsedge Sangal +13%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
InfernoSangal ban
50%38%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge Sangal +12%KUUSAMO · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Inferno
2. BanKUUSAMO remove Anubis
3. PickSangal take Nuke
4. PickKUUSAMO take Mirage
5. BanKUUSAMO remove Ancient
6. BanSangal remove Dust2
DeciderCache (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Sangal 50%KUUSAMO 50%
The model gave 50% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by Sangal.
Cacheprediction correct13:1
Sangal 63%KUUSAMO 37%
The model gave 63% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 75%
Series resultSangal 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2