Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
INFURITY#115 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageINFURITY ban
54%50%
ENCE · 20 mapsnearly even +4%INFURITY · 0 maps
InfernoENCE pick
63%67%
ENCE · 12 mapsnearly even -4%INFURITY · 5 maps
NukeINFURITY pick
50%43%
ENCE · 12 mapsedge ENCE +7%INFURITY · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
54%43%
ENCE · 9 mapsedge ENCE +11%INFURITY · 3 maps
CacheENCE ban
50%50%
ENCE · 8 mapsnearly even +0%INFURITY · 2 maps
Dust2INFURITY ban
46%40%
ENCE · 9 mapsedge ENCE +6%INFURITY · 1 map
AncientENCE ban
22%71%
ENCE · 5 mapsedge INFURITY +49%INFURITY · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Ancient
2. BanINFURITY remove Mirage
3. PickENCE take Inferno
4. PickINFURITY take Nuke
5. BanINFURITY remove Dust2
6. BanENCE remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (54% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
ENCE 42%INFURITY 58%
The model gave 58% on INFURITY — the map was taken by INFURITY.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
ENCE 60%INFURITY 40%
The model gave 60% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
ENCE 56%INFURITY 44%
The model gave 56% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFURITY · 52%
Series resultENCE 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3