NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeTDK ban
40%58%
TDK · 1 mapedge Walczaki +18%Walczaki · 22 maps
Ancientpossible decider
58%65%
TDK · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 13 maps
Dust2TDK pick
73%62%
TDK · 11 mapsedge TDK +11%Walczaki · 9 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
45%73%
TDK · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +28%Walczaki · 7 maps
AnubisWalczaki pick
43%75%
TDK · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +32%Walczaki · 8 maps
InfernoTDK ban
29%50%
TDK · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +21%Walczaki · 8 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
77%33%
TDK · 9 mapsedge TDK +44%Walczaki · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
3. PickTDK take Dust2
4. PickWalczaki take Anubis
5. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
6. BanTDK remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (58% / 65%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
TDK 40%Walczaki 60%
The model gave 60% on Walczaki — the map was taken by TDK.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
TDK 66%Walczaki 34%
The model gave 66% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 63%
Series resultTDK 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2