IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · win 13:5series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 13:5
BETBOOM#14 in the world · loss 5:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
78%75%
Spirit · 5 mapsnearly even +3%BETBOOM · 4 maps
AncientBETBOOM ban
75%50%
Spirit · 4 mapsedge Spirit +25%BETBOOM · 2 maps
NukeSpirit ban
50%50%
Spirit · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BETBOOM · 6 maps
MirageBETBOOM ban
67%33%
Spirit · 2 mapsedge Spirit +34%BETBOOM · 2 maps
AnubisSpirit ban
50%67%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge BETBOOM +17%BETBOOM · 2 maps
OverpassSpirit ban
40%40%
Spirit · 1 mapnearly even +0%BETBOOM · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Nuke
2. BanBETBOOM remove Mirage
3. BanSpirit remove Anubis
4. BanBETBOOM remove Ancient
5. BanSpirit remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (78% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Spirit 80%BETBOOM 20%
The model gave 80% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 83%
Series resultSpirit 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1