IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
FUT#9 in the world · win 13:11series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 13:11
B8#15 in the world · loss 11:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%67%
FUT · 2 mapsedge B8 +17%B8 · 5 maps
MirageFUT ban
33%67%
FUT · 2 mapsedge B8 +34%B8 · 5 maps
OverpassB8 ban
57%57%
FUT · 3 mapsnearly even +0%B8 · 3 maps
Dust2FUT ban
50%43%
FUT · 2 mapsedge FUT +7%B8 · 3 maps
NukeB8 ban
29%33%
FUT · 3 mapsnearly even -4%B8 · 2 maps
InfernoFUT ban
50%60%
FUT · 0 mapsedge B8 +10%B8 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFUT remove Inferno
2. BanB8 remove Nuke
3. BanFUT remove Mirage
4. BanB8 remove Overpass
5. BanFUT remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
FUT 33%B8 67%
The model gave 67% on B8 — the map was taken by FUT.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 55%
Series resultFUT 13:11
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1