IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
9z#17 in the world · win 13:9series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 13:9
FlyQuest#67 in the world · loss 9:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFlyQuest ban
56%43%
9z · 5 mapsedge 9z +13%FlyQuest · 3 maps
Inferno9z ban
50%50%
9z · 4 mapsnearly even +0%FlyQuest · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
56%67%
9z · 5 mapsedge FlyQuest +11%FlyQuest · 2 maps
Mirage9z ban
38%33%
9z · 4 mapsedge 9z +5%FlyQuest · 2 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
63%60%
9z · 4 mapsnearly even +3%FlyQuest · 1 map
Anubis9z ban
40%71%
9z · 1 mapedge FlyQuest +31%FlyQuest · 3 maps
OverpassFlyQuest ban
63%50%
9z · 4 mapsedge 9z +13%FlyQuest · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9z remove Anubis
2. BanFlyQuest remove Overpass
3. Ban9z remove Mirage
4. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
5. Ban9z remove Inferno
6. BanFlyQuest remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (56% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
9z 38%FlyQuest 62%
The model gave 62% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favorite9z · 78%
Series result9z 13:9
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1