IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · win 13:4series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 13:4
GamerLegion#22 in the world · loss 4:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAstralis ban
57%42%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge Astralis +15%GamerLegion · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%67%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge GamerLegion +17%GamerLegion · 8 maps
AncientGamerLegion ban
50%60%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge GamerLegion +10%GamerLegion · 6 maps
NukeAstralis ban
50%67%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge GamerLegion +17%GamerLegion · 5 maps
OverpassAstralis ban
33%50%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge GamerLegion +17%GamerLegion · 4 maps
Dust2GamerLegion ban
43%50%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge GamerLegion +7%GamerLegion · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Mirage
2. BanGamerLegion remove Dust2
3. BanAstralis remove Overpass
4. BanGamerLegion remove Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
Astralis 40%GamerLegion 60%
The model gave 60% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 68%
Series resultAstralis 13:4
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1