NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RUSTEC#124 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2RUSTEC pick
62%44%
ex-RUBY · 17 mapsedge ex-RUBY +18%RUSTEC · 5 maps
Mirageex-RUBY ban
44%63%
ex-RUBY · 12 mapsedge RUSTEC +19%RUSTEC · 4 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
84%40%
ex-RUBY · 15 mapsedge ex-RUBY +44%RUSTEC · 1 map
AncientRUSTEC ban
43%50%
ex-RUBY · 10 mapsedge RUSTEC +7%RUSTEC · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%60%
ex-RUBY · 8 mapsedge RUSTEC +10%RUSTEC · 1 map
AnubisRUSTEC ban
60%40%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +20%RUSTEC · 1 map
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%67%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge RUSTEC +17%RUSTEC · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanRUSTEC remove Anubis
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. PickRUSTEC take Dust2
5. BanRUSTEC remove Ancient
6. Banex-RUBY remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed22:19
ex-RUBY 37%RUSTEC 63%
The model gave 63% on RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
ex-RUBY 90%RUSTEC 10%
The model gave 90% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by RUSTEC.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
ex-RUBY 67%RUSTEC 33%
The model gave 67% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 59%
Series resultex-RUBY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3