ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
ZOTIX#322 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ZOTIX pick
60%40%
ZOTIX · 1 mapedge ZOTIX +20%Banger Gang · 1 map
AncientBanger Gang ban
60%50%
ZOTIX · 1 mapedge ZOTIX +10%Banger Gang · 0 maps
InfernoZOTIX ban
60%50%
ZOTIX · 1 mapedge ZOTIX +10%Banger Gang · 0 maps
MirageBanger Gang ban
40%50%
ZOTIX · 1 mapedge Banger Gang +10%Banger Gang · 0 maps
NukeZOTIX ban
50%40%
ZOTIX · 0 mapsedge ZOTIX +10%Banger Gang · 1 map
OverpassBanger Gang pick
40%50%
ZOTIX · 1 mapedge Banger Gang +10%Banger Gang · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZOTIX remove Nuke
2. BanBanger Gang remove Ancient
3. PickZOTIX take Dust2
4. PickBanger Gang take Overpass
5. BanBanger Gang remove Mirage
6. BanZOTIX remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
ZOTIX 63%Banger Gang 37%
The model gave 63% on ZOTIX — the map was taken by Banger Gang.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
ZOTIX 47%Banger Gang 53%
The model gave 53% on Banger Gang — the map was taken by ZOTIX.
Overpassprediction correct6:13
ZOTIX 40%Banger Gang 60%
The model gave 60% on Banger Gang — the map was taken by Banger Gang.
Model check result
Model favoriteZOTIX · 50%
Series resultBanger Gang 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3