CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilmix#204 in the world · win 1:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageDragonClaw pick
35%67%
Lilmix · 13 mapsedge DragonClaw +32%DragonClaw · 2 maps
Dust2Lilmix ban
25%33%
Lilmix · 12 mapsedge DragonClaw +8%DragonClaw · 2 maps
AncientDragonClaw ban
38%50%
Lilmix · 9 mapsedge DragonClaw +12%DragonClaw · 0 maps
OverpassDragonClaw ban
55%50%
Lilmix · 7 mapsedge Lilmix +5%DragonClaw · 2 maps
InfernoLilmix pick
80%50%
Lilmix · 6 mapsedge Lilmix +30%DragonClaw · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
33%29%
Lilmix · 2 mapsnearly even +4%DragonClaw · 3 maps
AnubisLilmix ban
50%67%
Lilmix · 0 mapsedge DragonClaw +17%DragonClaw · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Anubis
2. BanDragonClaw remove Ancient
3. PickLilmix take Inferno
4. PickDragonClaw take Mirage
5. BanDragonClaw remove Overpass
6. BanLilmix remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (33% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Lilmix 56%DragonClaw 44%
The model gave 56% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragonClaw · 68%
Series resultLilmix 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1