ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigy#242 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Clutchain#199 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVP.Prodigy ban
40%50%
VP.Prodigy · 1 mapedge Clutchain +10%Clutchain · 0 maps
AnubisClutchain ban
50%40%
VP.Prodigy · 0 mapsedge VP.Prodigy +10%Clutchain · 1 map
Dust2VP.Prodigy pick
40%50%
VP.Prodigy · 1 mapedge Clutchain +10%Clutchain · 0 maps
NukeClutchain pick
50%40%
VP.Prodigy · 0 mapsedge VP.Prodigy +10%Clutchain · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVP.Prodigy remove Ancient
2. BanClutchain remove Anubis
3. PickVP.Prodigy take Dust2
4. PickClutchain take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
VP.Prodigy 43%Clutchain 57%
The model gave 57% on Clutchain — the map was taken by VP.Prodigy.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
VP.Prodigy 57%Clutchain 43%
The model gave 57% on VP.Prodigy — the map was taken by Clutchain.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
VP.Prodigy 40%Clutchain 60%
The model gave 60% on Clutchain — the map was taken by Clutchain.
Model check result
Model favoriteClutchain · 64%
Series resultClutchain 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3