ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
eternal premium#208 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Project 91#160 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientProject 91 pick
60%45%
eternal premium · 1 mapedge eternal premium +15%Project 91 · 7 maps
Nukeeternal premium pick
38%38%
eternal premium · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Project 91 · 4 maps
Miragepossible decider
33%56%
eternal premium · 2 mapsedge Project 91 +23%Project 91 · 5 maps
Anubiseternal premium ban
33%50%
eternal premium · 2 mapsedge Project 91 +17%Project 91 · 4 maps
DefaultProject 91 ban
50%33%
eternal premium · 0 mapsedge eternal premium +17%Project 91 · 2 maps
InfernoProject 91 ban
50%33%
eternal premium · 0 mapsedge eternal premium +17%Project 91 · 2 maps
Dust2eternal premium ban
50%40%
eternal premium · 0 mapsedge eternal premium +10%Project 91 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Baneternal premium remove Dust2
2. BanProject 91 remove Inferno
3. Picketernal premium take Nuke
4. PickProject 91 take Ancient
5. BanProject 91 remove Default
6. Baneternal premium remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (33% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct14:16
eternal premium 31%Project 91 69%
The model gave 69% on Project 91 — the map was taken by Project 91.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
eternal premium 53%Project 91 47%
The model gave 53% on eternal premium — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
eternal premium 64%Project 91 36%
The model gave 64% on eternal premium — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Model check result
Model favoriteeternal premium · 54%
Series resulteternal premium 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3