ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Arch#247 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientArch pick
57%67%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge Arch +10%Arch · 2 maps
Dust2Fire Flux ban
29%67%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge Arch +38%Arch · 2 maps
AnubisArch ban
71%40%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +31%Arch · 1 map
MirageFire Flux pick
50%40%
Fire Flux · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +10%Arch · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Dust2
2. BanArch remove Anubis
3. PickFire Flux take Mirage
4. PickArch take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Fire Flux 57%Arch 43%
The model gave 57% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Arch.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
Fire Flux 18%Arch 82%
The model gave 82% on Arch — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
Fire Flux 79%Arch 21%
The model gave 79% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 54%
Series resultFire Flux 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3