IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BIG#27 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNRG pick
44%43%
NRG · 5 mapsnearly even +1%BIG · 3 maps
MirageBIG pick
57%57%
NRG · 3 mapsnearly even +0%BIG · 3 maps
NukeBIG ban
38%50%
NRG · 4 mapsedge BIG +12%BIG · 2 maps
InfernoNRG ban
38%60%
NRG · 4 mapsedge BIG +22%BIG · 1 map
OverpassNRG ban
33%33%
NRG · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BIG · 2 maps
AnubisBIG ban
50%40%
NRG · 0 mapsedge NRG +10%BIG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Overpass
2. BanBIG remove Nuke
3. PickNRG take Ancient
4. PickBIG take Mirage
5. BanBIG remove Anubis
6. BanNRG remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
NRG 47%BIG 53%
The model gave 53% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Nukeprediction missed16:12
NRG 40%BIG 60%
The model gave 60% on BIG — the map was taken by NRG.
Mirageprediction missed12:16
NRG 50%BIG 50%
The model gave 50% on NRG — the map was taken by BIG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 54%
Series resultBIG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3