NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
OverpassKOLESIE pick
55%38%
KOLESIE · 7 mapsedge KOLESIE +17%Atreides · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%58%
KOLESIE · 6 mapsedge Atreides +8%Atreides · 8 maps
MirageAtreides pick
63%79%
KOLESIE · 4 mapsedge Atreides +16%Atreides · 10 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
33%33%
KOLESIE · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Atreides · 5 maps
NukeKOLESIE ban
56%63%
KOLESIE · 5 mapsedge Atreides +7%Atreides · 4 maps
InfernoKOLESIE ban
50%67%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsedge Atreides +17%Atreides · 5 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
38%50%
KOLESIE · 4 mapsedge Atreides +12%Atreides · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
2. BanAtreides remove Anubis
3. PickKOLESIE take Overpass
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Dust2
6. BanKOLESIE remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
KOLESIE 29%Atreides 71%
The model gave 71% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Overpassprediction missed10:13
KOLESIE 68%Atreides 32%
The model gave 68% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 59%
Series resultAtreides 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2