Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Vaelloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OG#203 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
OverpassOG pick
50%60%
Vael · 0 mapsedge OG +10%OG · 6 maps
NukeVael pick
50%38%
Vael · 0 mapsedge Vael +12%OG · 4 maps
Dust2Vael ban
50%57%
Vael · 0 mapsedge OG +7%OG · 3 maps
InfernoVael ban
50%67%
Vael · 0 mapsedge OG +17%OG · 2 maps
MirageOG ban
50%50%
Vael · 0 mapsnearly even +0%OG · 2 maps
AncientOG ban
50%40%
Vael · 0 mapsedge Vael +10%OG · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
50%40%
Vael · 0 mapsedge Vael +10%OG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVael remove Inferno
2. BanOG remove Ancient
3. PickVael take Nuke
4. PickOG take Overpass
5. BanOG remove Mirage
6. BanVael remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
Vael 63%OG 37%
The model gave 63% on Vael — the map was taken by OG.
Dust2prediction correct1:13
Vael 40%OG 60%
The model gave 60% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 75%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2