Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vandulkenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
56%50%
Acend · 21 mapedge Acend +6%Vandulken · 0 maps
Dust2Acend ban
53%50%
Acend · 15 mapsnearly even +3%Vandulken · 0 maps
AncientVandulken pick
47%50%
Acend · 13 mapsnearly even -3%Vandulken · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%50%
Acend · 10 mapsedge Acend +7%Vandulken · 0 maps
OverpassAcend ban
36%50%
Acend · 10 mapsedge Vandulken +14%Vandulken · 0 maps
DefaultVandulken ban
71%50%
Acend · 3 mapsedge Acend +21%Vandulken · 0 maps
AnubisVandulken ban
67%50%
Acend · 2 mapsedge Acend +17%Vandulken · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Overpass
2. BanVandulken remove Default
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. PickVandulken take Ancient
5. BanVandulken remove Anubis
6. BanAcend remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:0
Acend 47%Vandulken 53%
The model gave 53% on Vandulken — the map was taken by Acend.
Infernoprediction correct13:2
Acend 60%Vandulken 40%
The model gave 60% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 85%
Series resultAcend 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2