European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
brazylijski luz#146 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeINOX Division pick
67%56%
INOX Division · 14 mapsedge INOX Division +11%brazylijski luz · 5 maps
Ancientbrazylijski luz pick
60%50%
INOX Division · 6 mapsedge INOX Division +10%brazylijski luz · 10 maps
Dust2possible decider
69%63%
INOX Division · 12 mapsedge INOX Division +6%brazylijski luz · 4 maps
Infernobrazylijski luz ban
57%40%
INOX Division · 10 mapsedge INOX Division +17%brazylijski luz · 1 map
Overpassbrazylijski luz ban
62%60%
INOX Division · 9 mapsnearly even +2%brazylijski luz · 1 map
AnubisINOX Division ban
50%57%
INOX Division · 4 mapsedge brazylijski luz +7%brazylijski luz · 3 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%40%
INOX Division · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +10%brazylijski luz · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
2. Banbrazylijski luz remove Inferno
3. PickINOX Division take Nuke
4. Pickbrazylijski luz take Ancient
5. Banbrazylijski luz remove Overpass
6. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (69% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
INOX Division 64%brazylijski luz 36%
The model gave 64% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
INOX Division 57%brazylijski luz 43%
The model gave 57% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 70%
Series resultINOX Division 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2