Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSINNERS pick
50%55%
MANGANESE · 0 mapsedge SINNERS +5%SINNERS · 7 maps
AncientMANGANESE pick
50%30%
MANGANESE · 0 mapsedge MANGANESE +20%SINNERS · 6 maps
Dust2MANGANESE ban
50%50%
MANGANESE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SINNERS · 6 maps
InfernoSINNERS ban
50%33%
MANGANESE · 0 mapsedge MANGANESE +17%SINNERS · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%43%
MANGANESE · 0 mapsedge MANGANESE +7%SINNERS · 3 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
50%33%
MANGANESE · 0 mapsedge MANGANESE +17%SINNERS · 2 maps
OverpassMANGANESE ban
50%60%
MANGANESE · 0 mapsedge SINNERS +10%SINNERS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMANGANESE remove Overpass
2. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
3. PickMANGANESE take Ancient
4. PickSINNERS take Mirage
5. BanSINNERS remove Inferno
6. BanMANGANESE remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed0:13
MANGANESE 69%SINNERS 31%
The model gave 69% on MANGANESE — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
MANGANESE 47%SINNERS 53%
The model gave 53% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 83%
Series resultSINNERS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2