Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#102 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSuba#293 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUNiTY pick
64%57%
UNiTY · 7 mapsedge UNiTY +7%eSuba · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%29%
UNiTY · 6 mapsedge UNiTY +21%eSuba · 3 maps
AnubiseSuba ban
38%38%
UNiTY · 4 mapsnearly even +0%eSuba · 4 maps
MirageeSuba ban
36%60%
UNiTY · 7 mapsedge eSuba +24%eSuba · 1 map
InfernoeSuba pick
43%63%
UNiTY · 3 mapsedge eSuba +20%eSuba · 4 maps
CacheUNiTY ban
38%50%
UNiTY · 4 mapsedge eSuba +12%eSuba · 0 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
40%43%
UNiTY · 1 mapnearly even -3%eSuba · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
2. BaneSuba remove Anubis
3. PickUNiTY take Ancient
4. PickeSuba take Inferno
5. BaneSuba remove Mirage
6. BanUNiTY remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (50% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
UNiTY 29%eSuba 71%
The model gave 71% on eSuba — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
UNiTY 60%eSuba 40%
The model gave 60% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteUNiTY · 57%
Series resultUNiTY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2