5EPlay Professional Challenge Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kaleido#154 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
59%55%
Kaleido · 13 mapsnearly even +4%Vitalem Aerem · 7 maps
Dust2Vitalem Aerem pick
62%55%
Kaleido · 9 mapsedge Kaleido +7%Vitalem Aerem · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
42%44%
Kaleido · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Vitalem Aerem · 5 maps
NukeVitalem Aerem ban
57%38%
Kaleido · 3 mapsedge Kaleido +19%Vitalem Aerem · 4 maps
MirageVitalem Aerem ban
50%60%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Vitalem Aerem · 1 map
AnubisKaleido ban
33%50%
Kaleido · 2 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +17%Vitalem Aerem · 2 maps
CacheKaleido ban
25%50%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +25%Vitalem Aerem · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKaleido remove Cache
2. BanVitalem Aerem remove Nuke
3. PickKaleido take Ancient
4. PickVitalem Aerem take Dust2
5. BanVitalem Aerem remove Mirage
6. BanKaleido remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (42% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Kaleido 54%Vitalem Aerem 46%
The model gave 54% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Kaleido 57%Vitalem Aerem 43%
The model gave 57% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Model check result
Model favoriteKaleido · 53%
Series resultKaleido 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2