European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PsychoFace pick
60%42%
PsychoFace · 11 mapsedge PsychoFace +18%HYPERSPIRIT · 8 maps
AnubisHYPERSPIRIT pick
44%36%
PsychoFace · 5 mapsedge PsychoFace +8%HYPERSPIRIT · 7 maps
MiragePsychoFace ban
33%44%
PsychoFace · 5 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +11%HYPERSPIRIT · 5 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
45%29%
PsychoFace · 7 mapsedge PsychoFace +16%HYPERSPIRIT · 3 maps
AncientPsychoFace ban
29%67%
PsychoFace · 3 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +38%HYPERSPIRIT · 2 maps
OverpassHYPERSPIRIT ban
63%40%
PsychoFace · 4 mapsedge PsychoFace +23%HYPERSPIRIT · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
50%67%
PsychoFace · 2 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +17%HYPERSPIRIT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPsychoFace remove Ancient
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
3. PickPsychoFace take Dust2
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Anubis
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Overpass
6. BanPsychoFace remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:8
PsychoFace 74%HYPERSPIRIT 26%
The model gave 74% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
PsychoFace 36%HYPERSPIRIT 64%
The model gave 64% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
PsychoFace 68%HYPERSPIRIT 32%
The model gave 68% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Model check result
Model favoritePsychoFace · 55%
Series resultHYPERSPIRIT 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3