NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ursa#88 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
58%63%
SPARTA · 15 mapsedge Ursa +5%Ursa · 15 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%38%
SPARTA · 8 mapsedge SPARTA +12%Ursa · 12 maps
MirageUrsa pick
33%50%
SPARTA · 8 mapsedge Ursa +17%Ursa · 8 maps
InfernoUrsa ban
40%36%
SPARTA · 6 mapsnearly even +4%Ursa · 7 maps
OverpassUrsa ban
56%33%
SPARTA · 5 mapsedge SPARTA +23%Ursa · 5 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
31%50%
SPARTA · 9 mapsedge Ursa +19%Ursa · 0 maps
DefaultSPARTA ban
40%50%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge Ursa +10%Ursa · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
2. BanUrsa remove Overpass
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickUrsa take Mirage
5. BanUrsa remove Inferno
6. BanSPARTA remove Default
DeciderNuke (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
SPARTA 31%Ursa 69%
The model gave 69% on Ursa — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
SPARTA 47%Ursa 53%
The model gave 53% on Ursa — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 52%
Series resultSPARTA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2