ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Falcons Force#152 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientQUAZAR ban
50%36%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge QUAZAR +14%Falcons Force · 7 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
50%30%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge QUAZAR +20%Falcons Force · 6 maps
MirageFalcons Force pick
50%60%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge Falcons Force +10%Falcons Force · 6 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
60%29%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +31%Falcons Force · 3 maps
AnubisQUAZAR pick
60%40%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +20%Falcons Force · 1 map
InfernoQUAZAR ban
50%60%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge Falcons Force +10%Falcons Force · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Inferno
2. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
3. PickQUAZAR take Anubis
4. PickFalcons Force take Mirage
5. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
6. BanQUAZAR remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed16:14
QUAZAR 37%Falcons Force 63%
The model gave 63% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
QUAZAR 81%Falcons Force 19%
The model gave 81% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 57%
Series resultQUAZAR 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2