Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Luminosity#30 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
50%63%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Spirit +13%Spirit · 12 maps
MirageLuminosity ban
40%64%
Luminosity · 1 mapedge Spirit +24%Spirit · 10 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%70%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Spirit +20%Spirit · 6 maps
NukeSpirit ban
50%57%
Luminosity · 2 mapsedge Spirit +7%Spirit · 3 maps
AncientLuminosity pick
50%75%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Spirit +25%Spirit · 4 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
29%50%
Luminosity · 3 mapsedge Spirit +21%Spirit · 0 maps
CacheLuminosity ban
50%50%
Luminosity · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Spirit · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Cache
2. BanSpirit remove Inferno
3. PickLuminosity take Ancient
4. PickSpirit take Dust2
5. BanSpirit remove Nuke
6. BanLuminosity remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct3:13
Luminosity 27%Spirit 73%
The model gave 73% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Dust2prediction correct15:19
Luminosity 35%Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 91%
Series resultSpirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2