IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TYLOO#33 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SINNERS#44 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSINNERS pick
69%63%
TYLOO · 9 mapsedge TYLOO +6%SINNERS · 4 maps
InfernoTYLOO pick
67%29%
TYLOO · 8 mapsedge TYLOO +38%SINNERS · 3 maps
AncientSINNERS ban
31%40%
TYLOO · 9 mapsedge SINNERS +9%SINNERS · 1 map
NukeTYLOO ban
60%43%
TYLOO · 6 mapsedge TYLOO +17%SINNERS · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%67%
TYLOO · 6 mapsedge SINNERS +7%SINNERS · 2 maps
Dust2TYLOO ban
50%50%
TYLOO · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SINNERS · 2 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
60%50%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge TYLOO +10%SINNERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
2. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
3. PickTYLOO take Inferno
4. PickSINNERS take Mirage
5. BanSINNERS remove Ancient
6. BanTYLOO remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
TYLOO 37%SINNERS 63%
The model gave 63% on SINNERS — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
TYLOO 85%SINNERS 15%
The model gave 85% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Model check result
Model favoriteTYLOO · 51%
Series resultTYLOO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2