IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · win 13:10series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 13:10
FlyQuest#67 in the world · loss 10:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFlyQuest ban
50%43%
NRG · 4 mapsedge NRG +7%FlyQuest · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
43%33%
NRG · 3 mapsedge NRG +10%FlyQuest · 2 maps
NukeNRG ban
38%60%
NRG · 4 mapsedge FlyQuest +22%FlyQuest · 1 map
MirageFlyQuest ban
50%40%
NRG · 2 mapsedge NRG +10%FlyQuest · 1 map
Dust2NRG ban
50%67%
NRG · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest +17%FlyQuest · 2 maps
OverpassFlyQuest ban
33%50%
NRG · 2 mapsedge FlyQuest +17%FlyQuest · 0 maps
AnubisNRG ban
50%60%
NRG · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest +10%FlyQuest · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Dust2
2. BanFlyQuest remove Overpass
3. BanNRG remove Nuke
4. BanFlyQuest remove Mirage
5. BanNRG remove Anubis
6. BanFlyQuest remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (43% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
NRG 60%FlyQuest 40%
The model gave 60% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 69%
Series resultNRG 13:10
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1