NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
71%69%
ARCRED · 3 mapsnearly even +2%INOX Division · 12 maps
NukeINOX Division pick
60%65%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge INOX Division +5%INOX Division · 13 maps
InfernoARCRED ban
50%57%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +7%INOX Division · 10 maps
AncientINOX Division ban
43%60%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge INOX Division +17%INOX Division · 6 maps
OverpassARCRED ban
50%62%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +12%INOX Division · 9 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
71%43%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge ARCRED +28%INOX Division · 3 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%50%
ARCRED · 2 mapsnearly even +0%INOX Division · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Overpass
2. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
3. PickARCRED take Anubis
4. PickINOX Division take Nuke
5. BanINOX Division remove Ancient
6. BanARCRED remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (71% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
ARCRED 42%INOX Division 58%
The model gave 58% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Anubisprediction missed3:13
ARCRED 79%INOX Division 21%
The model gave 79% on ARCRED — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 59%
Series resultINOX Division 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2