ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega#148 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Omega pick
88%50%
Omega · 13 mapsedge Omega +38%Fire Flux · 10 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
58%40%
Omega · 8 mapsedge Omega +18%Fire Flux · 6 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
57%57%
Omega · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Fire Flux · 3 maps
InfernoOmega ban
50%56%
Omega · 4 mapsedge Fire Flux +6%Fire Flux · 5 maps
NukeFire Flux pick
38%63%
Omega · 4 mapsedge Fire Flux +25%Fire Flux · 4 maps
AnubisOmega ban
50%64%
Omega · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +14%Fire Flux · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%44%
Omega · 1 mapedge Omega +16%Fire Flux · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOmega remove Anubis
2. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
3. PickOmega take Dust2
4. PickFire Flux take Nuke
5. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
6. BanOmega remove Inferno
DeciderCache (60% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed16:19
Omega 62%Fire Flux 38%
The model gave 62% on Omega — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Omega 89%Fire Flux 11%
The model gave 89% on Omega — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega · 67%
Series resultFire Flux 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2