ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PCIFIC#135 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
45%56%
Entropy · 25 mapsedge PCIFIC +11%PCIFIC · 5 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
27%42%
Entropy · 11 mapsedge PCIFIC +15%PCIFIC · 8 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
52%50%
Entropy · 17 mapsnearly even +2%PCIFIC · 0 maps
AnubisPCIFIC ban
53%33%
Entropy · 11 mapsedge Entropy +20%PCIFIC · 2 maps
CacheEntropy pick
53%50%
Entropy · 13 mapsnearly even +3%PCIFIC · 0 maps
InfernoEntropy ban
45%57%
Entropy · 7 mapsedge PCIFIC +12%PCIFIC · 3 maps
DefaultPCIFIC pick
50%50%
Entropy · 6 mapsnearly even +0%PCIFIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Dust2
2. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
3. PickEntropy take Cache
4. PickPCIFIC take Default
5. BanPCIFIC remove Anubis
6. BanEntropy remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (45% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
Entropy 56%PCIFIC 44%
The model gave 56% on Entropy — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Entropy 31%PCIFIC 69%
The model gave 69% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 59%
Series resultPCIFIC 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2