ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
48%45%
EAC · 17 mapsnearly even +3%Fortress · 7 maps
MirageFortress ban
58%22%
EAC · 15 mapsedge EAC +36%Fortress · 5 maps
NukeFortress ban
44%33%
EAC · 14 mapsedge EAC +11%Fortress · 5 maps
CacheEAC pick
62%22%
EAC · 9 mapsedge EAC +40%Fortress · 5 maps
InfernoEAC ban
20%36%
EAC · 6 mapsedge Fortress +16%Fortress · 7 maps
AnubisEAC ban
50%50%
EAC · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Fortress · 2 maps
OverpassFortress pick
50%67%
EAC · 8 mapsedge Fortress +17%Fortress · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Inferno
2. BanFortress remove Mirage
3. PickEAC take Cache
4. PickFortress take Overpass
5. BanFortress remove Nuke
6. BanEAC remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (48% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
EAC 28%Fortress 72%
The model gave 72% on Fortress — the map was taken by EAC.
Anubisprediction correct13:3
EAC 53%Fortress 47%
The model gave 53% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 76%
Series resultEAC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2