ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Metizport#52 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Metizport ban
50%70%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +20%SPARTA · 29 maps
MirageSPARTA pick
60%57%
Metizport · 6 mapsnearly even +3%SPARTA · 17 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
63%41%
Metizport · 4 mapsedge Metizport +22%SPARTA · 18 maps
NukeMetizport pick
50%44%
Metizport · 8 mapsedge Metizport +6%SPARTA · 14 maps
InfernoSPARTA ban
44%46%
Metizport · 5 mapsnearly even -2%SPARTA · 9 maps
CacheMetizport ban
40%45%
Metizport · 1 mapedge SPARTA +5%SPARTA · 7 maps
Overpasspossible decider
56%43%
Metizport · 5 mapsedge Metizport +13%SPARTA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMetizport remove Dust2
2. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
3. PickMetizport take Nuke
4. PickSPARTA take Mirage
5. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
6. BanMetizport remove Cache
DeciderOverpass (56% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Metizport 50%SPARTA 50%
The model gave 50% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Metizport.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
Metizport 58%SPARTA 42%
The model gave 58% on Metizport — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
Metizport 48%SPARTA 52%
The model gave 52% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Metizport.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 51%
Series resultMetizport 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3