ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFire Flux ban
47%40%
Entropy · 26 mapsedge Entropy +7%Fire Flux · 6 maps
Dust2Fire Flux pick
24%56%
Entropy · 13 mapsedge Fire Flux +32%Fire Flux · 12 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
55%57%
Entropy · 18 mapsnearly even -2%Fire Flux · 3 maps
CacheEntropy pick
50%45%
Entropy · 14 mapsedge Entropy +5%Fire Flux · 7 maps
Anubispossible decider
53%64%
Entropy · 11 mapsedge Fire Flux +11%Fire Flux · 7 maps
InfernoEntropy ban
45%50%
Entropy · 7 mapsedge Fire Flux +5%Fire Flux · 6 maps
NukeEntropy ban
43%63%
Entropy · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +20%Fire Flux · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Nuke
2. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
3. PickEntropy take Cache
4. PickFire Flux take Dust2
5. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
6. BanEntropy remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (53% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Entropy 60%Fire Flux 40%
The model gave 60% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Entropy 42%Fire Flux 58%
The model gave 58% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Anubisprediction correct12:16
Entropy 40%Fire Flux 60%
The model gave 60% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 55%
Series resultFire Flux 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3