ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Permitta#103 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPermitta ban
38%48%
Permitta · 4 mapsedge EAC +10%EAC · 17 maps
MirageEAC pick
57%55%
Permitta · 3 mapsnearly even +2%EAC · 16 maps
NukeEAC ban
50%47%
Permitta · 4 mapsnearly even +3%EAC · 13 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%62%
Permitta · 5 mapsedge Permitta +5%EAC · 9 maps
AnubisEAC ban
57%54%
Permitta · 3 mapsnearly even +3%EAC · 9 maps
InfernoPermitta ban
50%25%
Permitta · 0 mapsedge Permitta +25%EAC · 8 maps
OverpassPermitta pick
50%55%
Permitta · 0 mapsedge EAC +5%EAC · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPermitta remove Inferno
2. BanEAC remove Anubis
3. PickPermitta take Overpass
4. PickEAC take Mirage
5. BanEAC remove Nuke
6. BanPermitta remove Ancient
DeciderCache (67% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Permitta 50%EAC 50%
The model gave 50% on Permitta — the map was taken by EAC.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
Permitta 37%EAC 63%
The model gave 63% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 65%
Series resultEAC 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2