ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#135 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
43%71%
PCIFIC · 10 mapsedge SPARTA +28%SPARTA · 30 maps
MirageSPARTA pick
56%55%
PCIFIC · 5 mapsnearly even +1%SPARTA · 18 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
50%41%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge PCIFIC +9%SPARTA · 18 maps
NukePCIFIC ban
60%47%
PCIFIC · 1 mapedge PCIFIC +13%SPARTA · 15 maps
InfernoSPARTA ban
63%43%
PCIFIC · 4 mapsedge PCIFIC +20%SPARTA · 10 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%50%
PCIFIC · 2 mapsedge PCIFIC +17%SPARTA · 8 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
33%43%
PCIFIC · 2 mapsedge SPARTA +10%SPARTA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. PickSPARTA take Mirage
5. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
6. BanPCIFIC remove Nuke
DeciderCache (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
PCIFIC 22%SPARTA 78%
The model gave 78% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Infernoprediction missed6:13
PCIFIC 71%SPARTA 29%
The model gave 71% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 51%
Series resultSPARTA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2