ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEAC ban
50%60%
EAC · 18 mapsedge Color +10%Color · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
55%50%
EAC · 16 mapsedge EAC +5%Color · 0 maps
NukeColor ban
47%50%
EAC · 13 mapsnearly even -3%Color · 0 maps
AnubisColor ban
54%50%
EAC · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Color · 0 maps
CacheEAC pick
62%50%
EAC · 9 mapsedge EAC +12%Color · 0 maps
InfernoEAC ban
25%50%
EAC · 8 mapsedge Color +25%Color · 0 maps
OverpassColor pick
55%50%
EAC · 7 mapsedge EAC +5%Color · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Inferno
2. BanColor remove Nuke
3. PickEAC take Cache
4. PickColor take Overpass
5. BanColor remove Anubis
6. BanEAC remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
EAC 43%Color 57%
The model gave 57% on Color — the map was taken by EAC.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
EAC 52%Color 48%
The model gave 52% on EAC — the map was taken by Color.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
EAC 54%Color 46%
The model gave 54% on EAC — the map was taken by Color.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 79%
Series resultColor 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3