ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Metizport#52 in the world · win 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeColor ban
46%50%
Metizport · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Color · 0 maps
MirageColor pick
64%60%
Metizport · 7 mapsnearly even +4%Color · 1 map
AncientMetizport pick
67%50%
Metizport · 5 mapsedge Metizport +17%Color · 2 maps
InfernoColor ban
50%50%
Metizport · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Color · 0 maps
AnubisMetizport ban
63%60%
Metizport · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Color · 1 map
Overpasspossible decider
56%50%
Metizport · 5 mapsedge Metizport +6%Color · 0 maps
DefaultMetizport ban
60%60%
Metizport · 1 mapnearly even +0%Color · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMetizport remove Anubis
2. BanColor remove Nuke
3. PickMetizport take Ancient
4. PickColor take Mirage
5. BanColor remove Inferno
6. BanMetizport remove Default
DeciderOverpass (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Metizport 51%Color 49%
The model gave 51% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
Metizport 53%Color 47%
The model gave 53% on Metizport — the map was taken by Color.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
Metizport 50%Color 50%
The model gave 50% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 72%
Series resultMetizport 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3