IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
SINNERS#45 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 6:13
NRG#30 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSINNERS ban
29%43%
SINNERS · 3 mapsedge NRG +14%NRG · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
63%50%
SINNERS · 4 mapsedge SINNERS +13%NRG · 2 maps
AncientSINNERS ban
40%50%
SINNERS · 1 mapedge NRG +10%NRG · 4 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
50%29%
SINNERS · 2 mapsedge SINNERS +21%NRG · 3 maps
OverpassNRG ban
67%33%
SINNERS · 2 mapsedge SINNERS +34%NRG · 2 maps
Dust2NRG ban
50%50%
SINNERS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%NRG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Ancient
2. BanNRG remove Dust2
3. BanSINNERS remove Inferno
4. BanNRG remove Overpass
5. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
SINNERS 71%NRG 29%
The model gave 71% on SINNERS — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 52%
Series resultNRG 6:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1