IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
HEROIC#30 in the world · loss 11:13series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 11:13
Lynn Vision#39 in the world · win 13:11The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lynn Vision ban
57%64%
HEROIC · 3 mapsedge Lynn Vision +7%Lynn Vision · 7 maps
InfernoLynn Vision ban
25%43%
HEROIC · 4 mapsedge Lynn Vision +18%Lynn Vision · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
43%57%
HEROIC · 3 mapsedge Lynn Vision +14%Lynn Vision · 3 maps
AncientHEROIC ban
50%56%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge Lynn Vision +6%Lynn Vision · 5 maps
MirageLynn Vision ban
25%50%
HEROIC · 4 mapsedge Lynn Vision +25%Lynn Vision · 0 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%50%
HEROIC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lynn Vision · 2 maps
OverpassHEROIC ban
60%60%
HEROIC · 1 mapnearly even +0%Lynn Vision · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. BanLynn Vision remove Mirage
3. BanHEROIC remove Overpass
4. BanLynn Vision remove Inferno
5. BanHEROIC remove Ancient
6. BanLynn Vision remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (43% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
HEROIC 43%Lynn Vision 57%
The model gave 57% on Lynn Vision — the map was taken by Lynn Vision.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 53%
Series resultLynn Vision 11:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1