CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
MAYBE#173 in the world · win 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Illyrians#144 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMAYBE pick
50%71%
MAYBE · 8 mapsedge Illyrians +21%Illyrians · 10 maps
Dust2Illyrians pick
30%38%
MAYBE · 6 mapsedge Illyrians +8%Illyrians · 9 maps
AncientMAYBE ban
27%56%
MAYBE · 7 mapsedge Illyrians +29%Illyrians · 5 maps
AnubisMAYBE ban
43%71%
MAYBE · 3 mapsedge Illyrians +28%Illyrians · 3 maps
CacheIllyrians ban
50%33%
MAYBE · 4 mapsedge MAYBE +17%Illyrians · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
MAYBE · 1 mapedge MAYBE +10%Illyrians · 2 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
50%40%
MAYBE · 2 mapsedge MAYBE +10%Illyrians · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMAYBE remove Anubis
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. PickMAYBE take Mirage
4. PickIllyrians take Dust2
5. BanIllyrians remove Cache
6. BanMAYBE remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
MAYBE 38%Illyrians 62%
The model gave 62% on Illyrians — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
MAYBE 69%Illyrians 31%
The model gave 69% on MAYBE — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Mirageprediction missed16:12
MAYBE 29%Illyrians 71%
The model gave 71% on Illyrians — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Model check result
Model favoriteIllyrians · 60%
Series resultMAYBE 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3