European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
brazylijski luz#146 in the world · win 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientbrazylijski luz ban
42%70%
brazylijski luz · 8 mapsedge Atreides +28%Atreides · 6 maps
MirageAtreides pick
33%77%
brazylijski luz · 5 mapsedge Atreides +44%Atreides · 9 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
63%38%
brazylijski luz · 4 mapsedge brazylijski luz +25%Atreides · 4 maps
Nukebrazylijski luz pick
63%57%
brazylijski luz · 4 mapsedge brazylijski luz +6%Atreides · 3 maps
OverpassAtreides ban
50%45%
brazylijski luz · 0 mapsedge brazylijski luz +5%Atreides · 7 maps
Infernobrazylijski luz ban
40%67%
brazylijski luz · 1 mapedge Atreides +27%Atreides · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%60%
brazylijski luz · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Atreides · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banbrazylijski luz remove Inferno
2. BanAtreides remove Dust2
3. Pickbrazylijski luz take Nuke
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Overpass
6. Banbrazylijski luz remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (57% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:8
brazylijski luz 52%Atreides 48%
The model gave 52% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by brazylijski luz.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
brazylijski luz 26%Atreides 74%
The model gave 74% on Atreides — the map was taken by brazylijski luz.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 63%
Series resultbrazylijski luz 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2