BLAST Open Porto 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:1series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Falcons#5 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons pick
69%69%
MOUZ · 9 mapsnearly even +0%Falcons · 12 maps
Miragepossible decider
58%50%
MOUZ · 8 mapsedge MOUZ +8%Falcons · 6 maps
AncientMOUZ ban
33%44%
MOUZ · 8 mapsedge Falcons +11%Falcons · 5 maps
NukeMOUZ pick
77%50%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge MOUZ +27%Falcons · 2 maps
InfernoFalcons ban
63%60%
MOUZ · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Falcons · 6 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
50%67%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge Falcons +17%Falcons · 5 maps
CacheFalcons ban
60%50%
MOUZ · 1 mapedge MOUZ +10%Falcons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
2. BanFalcons remove Cache
3. PickMOUZ take Nuke
4. PickFalcons take Dust2
5. BanFalcons remove Inferno
6. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
MOUZ 79%Falcons 21%
The model gave 79% on MOUZ — the map was taken by Falcons.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
MOUZ 36%Falcons 64%
The model gave 64% on Falcons — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
MOUZ 53%Falcons 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 73%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3