ESN Fall Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#102 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSpace ban
70%50%
NEXVOID · 19 mapsedge NEXVOID +20%Space · 0 maps
InfernoNEXVOID pick
68%50%
NEXVOID · 18 mapsedge NEXVOID +18%Space · 0 maps
Dust2Space pick
46%50%
NEXVOID · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Space · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
46%50%
NEXVOID · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Space · 0 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
22%50%
NEXVOID · 5 mapsedge Space +28%Space · 0 maps
AnubisNEXVOID ban
50%50%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Space · 0 maps
DefaultSpace ban
60%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge NEXVOID +10%Space · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
2. BanSpace remove Ancient
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickSpace take Dust2
5. BanSpace remove Default
6. BanNEXVOID remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (46% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
NEXVOID 43%Space 57%
The model gave 57% on Space — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
NEXVOID 71%Space 29%
The model gave 71% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 66%
Series resultNEXVOID 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2