ESN Fall Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NEXVOID#102 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNEXVOID pick
50%70%
1337 · 2 mapsedge NEXVOID +20%NEXVOID · 19 maps
Inferno1337 ban
50%67%
1337 · 0 mapsedge NEXVOID +17%NEXVOID · 20 maps
Nuke1337 pick
50%47%
1337 · 2 mapsnearly even +3%NEXVOID · 11 maps
Dust2NEXVOID ban
60%46%
1337 · 1 mapedge 1337 +14%NEXVOID · 9 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
50%22%
1337 · 0 mapsedge 1337 +28%NEXVOID · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
1337 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%NEXVOID · 2 maps
Default1337 ban
50%60%
1337 · 0 mapsedge NEXVOID +10%NEXVOID · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1337 remove Inferno
2. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
3. Pick1337 take Nuke
4. PickNEXVOID take Ancient
5. BanNEXVOID remove Dust2
6. Ban1337 remove Default
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
1337 31%NEXVOID 69%
The model gave 69% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by 1337.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
1337 66%NEXVOID 34%
The model gave 66% on 1337 — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
1337 53%NEXVOID 47%
The model gave 53% on 1337 — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 66%
Series resultNEXVOID 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3