ESN Fall Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:1series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5star#35 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
56%59%
Chinggis Warriors · 12 mapsnearly even -3%5star · 13 maps
InfernoChinggis Warriors pick
62%56%
Chinggis Warriors · 9 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +6%5star · 14 maps
Ancient5star ban
44%22%
Chinggis Warriors · 5 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +22%5star · 14 maps
MirageChinggis Warriors ban
50%64%
Chinggis Warriors · 4 mapsedge 5star +14%5star · 7 maps
Cache5star pick
40%62%
Chinggis Warriors · 1 mapedge 5star +22%5star · 9 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
29%75%
Chinggis Warriors · 3 mapsedge 5star +46%5star · 4 maps
Dust25star ban
45%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 7 mapsedge 5star +5%5star · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
2. Ban5star remove Dust2
3. PickChinggis Warriors take Inferno
4. Pick5star take Cache
5. Ban5star remove Ancient
6. BanChinggis Warriors remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (56% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
Chinggis Warriors 76%5star 24%
The model gave 76% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by 5star.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
Chinggis Warriors 27%5star 73%
The model gave 73% on 5star — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
Chinggis Warriors 47%5star 53%
The model gave 53% on 5star — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 91%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3