ESN Fall Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Huns#123 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
59%52%
Chinggis Warriors · 13 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +7%The Huns · 17 maps
InfernoChinggis Warriors pick
62%29%
Chinggis Warriors · 9 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +33%The Huns · 17 maps
Dust2The Huns pick
45%64%
Chinggis Warriors · 7 mapsedge The Huns +19%The Huns · 18 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
40%59%
Chinggis Warriors · 6 mapsedge The Huns +19%The Huns · 13 maps
MirageThe Huns ban
50%38%
Chinggis Warriors · 4 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +12%The Huns · 12 maps
CacheThe Huns ban
50%56%
Chinggis Warriors · 2 mapsedge The Huns +6%The Huns · 5 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
29%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 3 mapsedge The Huns +21%The Huns · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
2. BanThe Huns remove Cache
3. PickChinggis Warriors take Inferno
4. PickThe Huns take Dust2
5. BanThe Huns remove Mirage
6. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (59% / 52%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Chinggis Warriors 30%The Huns 70%
The model gave 70% on The Huns — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Chinggis Warriors 82%The Huns 18%
The model gave 82% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Huns · 61%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2